Some argue that the United States has been attempting to suppress China's economy through monetary policies such as interest rate hikes, even attempting to "short" China. However, the fluctuation of the Chinese yuan has not depreciated as significantly as anticipated; instead, it has shown relative stability. Meanwhile, the United States itself has fallen into a significant fiscal predicament. The Federal Reserve has been raising interest rates for over two years, with rates increasing progressively, leading to substantial losses for the institution itself.

The U.S. Treasury Department is also facing tough times, with soaring national debt interest payments and a further widening fiscal deficit. In light of this situation, one cannot help but ask: How long can the United States sustain itself?

The Federal Reserve has been persistently raising interest rates over the past two years with the aim of combating inflation by increasing rates and creating a high-interest environment, hoping to attract more capital back to the United States. This approach, however, has led the institution into a dilemma. As interest rates have risen, the interest paid by the Federal Reserve to financial institutions has also increased significantly. Banks earn high interest through the Federal Reserve's overnight reverse repurchase agreements, and the Federal Reserve must cover the substantial dollar capital flowing back.

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In simple terms, an overnight reverse repurchase agreement is when banks temporarily deposit their excess funds with the Federal Reserve, ensuring both safety and a decent return. The issue is that the Federal Reserve has thus incurred massive interest expenses, leading directly to losses in the trillions of dollars.

Not only the Federal Reserve, but also the Treasury Department is struggling. The U.S. fiscal deficit continues to expand, and interest payments on national debt have surged. In the previous fiscal year, the United States' interest payments on national debt were approximately $600 billion, but in the new fiscal year, these payments have skyrocketed to $1.1 trillion.

The United States aimed to打击 other countries' economies through high-interest-rate policies, particularly attempting to suppress China's growth. However, this strategy has also plunged itself into a massive debt quagmire. The U.S. fiscal deficit was already severe, with expenditures consistently exceeding revenues in recent years. As interest rates rise, the interest the United States must pay on its national debt also increases.After the maturity of previously issued low-interest government bonds, the Treasury Department is forced to reissue debt at higher interest rates, which directly leads to a significant increase in interest costs. This situation implies that the United States will bear more debt expenditure each year, with increasing pressure on the Treasury Department.

Currently, the Federal Reserve's losses have reached $201.2 billion. This is just the beginning, as the losses of the Federal Reserve may further expand with the continuation of high-interest-rate policies. This is not just a numerical issue but also reflects the predicament of the United States under the current monetary policy.

The Federal Reserve raises interest rates to curb inflation, but high interest rates also mean that it has to bear substantial interest expenditures. Rather than controlling global capital through monetary policy, the Federal Reserve is now paying for its own high interest costs.

In the coming years, it is expected that the Federal Reserve's losses will continue to expand, and it will be difficult to fill these fiscal holes until 2027.

This is because the interest costs borne by the Federal Reserve will not easily decrease unless it significantly lowers interest rates. But the problem is that the Federal Reserve cannot easily lower interest rates now.

If interest rates are lowered too quickly, it may lead to capital flight, a weakening dollar, and exacerbated inflation problems. Therefore, the Federal Reserve is in a dilemma, wanting to suppress inflation but unable to bear the pressure of continuous interest rate hikes and losses.

Compared with the predicament faced by the United States, China's capital market has performed relatively steadily. Recently, although the exchange rate of the renminbi has fluctuated, it has generally maintained a relatively stable level, attracting more global capital to flow into the Chinese market.

This phenomenon has surprised many analysts, as theoretically, more funds should flow back to the United States under the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes. However, the strong performance of the A-share market and the continuous recovery of China's economy have attracted a large amount of foreign capital to enter the Chinese market.

Especially with the introduction of a series of favorable policies in China, many long-term investors are optimistic about the potential of the Chinese market. This has also made the renminbi's exchange rate more resilient in the process of global capital flows.

Faced with fiscal deficits and the Federal Reserve's huge losses, how long can the United States hold on? This is a question that many people care about.The Federal Reserve's current high-interest-rate policy has imposed a significant financial burden on the United States, particularly with the soaring interest on national debt making life increasingly difficult for the Treasury Department. The Fed aims to attract capital backflow through high interest rates, but this policy itself has plunged it into a quagmire of losses.

In the coming years, if the United States continues to maintain high interest rates, the Treasury's interest expenditures will further increase, exacerbating the deficit problem.

Should the Federal Reserve be compelled to lower interest rates to alleviate its own pressure from losses, the international status of the US dollar may be affected, and the risk of capital flight could rise. At that point, whether the United States can continue to sustain its current economic conditions would really be a big question mark.